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Status 2020-03-25: den uppskattade finansiella smällen för flyget

NyfikenGrau

Medlem
Nä antagligen inte. Även 75 % för IAG och 95 % för Lufthansa ger ju ett annat perspektiv på bolag man uppfattat som rätt säkra. Men jag vet inte hur mycket detta diagram säger heller, bara att man förstår varför bolagen försöker få passagerare att boka om eller ta voucher istället för pengar tillbaka..
 

Homer

Medlem
British Airways Lands in Junk Territory After Fitch Cuts Rating
British Airways has become the first major European carrier to lose its investment grade status amid the Covid-19 pandemic after Fitch cut its credit rating one notch.

The flagship British company, controlled by the International Consolidated Airlines Group, is unlikely to recover its end-2019 capacity level until 2023, according to Fitch’s baseline forecast.

The ratings agency also put the company on negative outlook, reflecting the uncertainty around the air travel industry. Its report cited “the heightened risk for British Airways to adjust its operational base, investment program and capital structure in a fast-evolving environment.”
 

Homer

Medlem
In an interview in La Tribune Air France CEO Ben Smith expects the following capacity on the AFKL network:
  • 20% in June
  • 40% in July
  • 60% in August
  • 75% in the fourth quarter of the year
Also he says that
  • A350 deliveries in May and June will happen
  • No decision yet on A350/B787 deliveries due to happen later in the year
  • A380 to leave fleet "earlier" (still not clear whether they are still flying and whether any of them will return to service when capacity is increased again)
  • A220 deliveries due to start next autumn are maintained at least for the moment
  • Expects that it will take two years for traffic to be back to 2019 levels (that is more optimistic than other large airlines' CEOs)
The company loses EUR 600M every month.

Ben Smith's expectations for ramping up operations - FlyerTalk Forums
 

Homer

Medlem
Vänner,

Från Business Traveller kommer det idag en uppdatering att The International Air Transport Association (IATA) analys för hur stor den finansiella smällen kommer bli:

"The Association now believes global passenger revenues could fall by $252 billion this year – 44 per cent down on 2019’s figures. This is up from the estimated $113 billion which IATA published earlier this month."

Källa

Det är enorma belopp vi talar om här.

Den detaljerade IATA rapporten finns här:
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/third-impact-assessment/


Nu har de publicerat en uppdatering daterad 2019-04-14
där de uppskattar att intäkterna kommer att minska med ytterligare 25% / $62 miljarder och bli $314 miljarder

https://www.iata.org/en/iata-reposi...nomic-reports/covid-fourth-impact-assessment/
 

Senator

Moderator
Lite mer intressant/läskig/tråkig läsning:

Först är det Routes Online som har en intressant analys av nuvarande kapacitet i USA jämfört med förra året:
COVID-19: North America market update | Routesonline

Här slås man av att JFK-LHR förra året på denna tid hade 4:e högsta kapaciteten. Nu saknas EWR-LHR som också har mycket trafik men det är rätt sjukt att tänka på hur många som flyger varje dag mellan London och New York i vanliga fall. Varför Denver har så mycket kapacitet just nu till Phoenix och Las Vegas är oklart.

Sen kommer de stora amerikanska bolagen denna vecka ut med resultat för kvartal 1. CNN skriver om detta här:
How bad is the airline crisis? We're about to find out - CNN

Det är ganska uppenbart nu att den 1:e oktober kommer American, Delta och United börja sparka anställda. Det får inte bolagen göra som en del av det räddningspaket som Kongressen har klubbat genom innan sista september.
 
Global traffic is now down 80 percent, quashing recent forecasts that the number of airline passengers would double within 20 years. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said passenger revenues will plunge by about 55 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic.

"We are not expecting to restart the same industry that we closed a few weeks ago,"

Alexandre de Juniac, head of IATA said.

In late March, the IATA, which represents 290 carriers, forecast that half of the world's airlines would run out of cash within two to three months.
It urged governments to support airlines, either by nationalizing them or injecting fresh capital, waiving or delaying charges including taxes, or providing loan guarantees.
Airlinerwatch.com
 

Homer

Medlem
Den som väntar på återbetalning av biljetter från Lufty får nog göra sig beredd på en lång väntan


Bloomberg - Pivotal Lufthansa Bailout Snared in Government Tangle

Lufthansa on verge of bankruptcy without a bailout – official

In case you’re wondering, below are the Citi estimates for how long the major European airline groups can last assuming that they continue to pay their bills, refund tickets and pay interest and debt as they become due:

Air France-KLM – 3 months
easyJet – 15 months
IAG (British Airways) – 8 months
Lufthansa – already technically insolvent
Ryanair – 18 months
Wizz Air – 22 months
 

agehall

Medlem
Ajajaj, inte bra. Väntar på en återbetalning från Lufthansa för en F-resa till Kina/Japan som inte blev av. Får kanske börja hålla ögonen på om den dyker upp eller inte...
 

Homer

Medlem
Att företag som inte borde få några pengar kommer att kunna ta del av statligt pengaregn
borde inte komma som någon överraskning.


UK Government bails out Hungary’s Wizz Air with £300 million

Wizz Air is borrowing a potential £300 million from the UK Government because it is dirt cheap money
.
It has no need for the funding. The money will, most likely, to be used to repay more expensive bank and bond debt.


Whilst its head office and management team are based in Budapest, Wizz Air is listed on the London Stock Exchange because its domestic stock market is too small and illiquid. It also has a UK operating subsidiary which is the legal operator of the ten aircraft it bases in the UK.


Given the relatively soft criteria for accessing this money, as long as you have traded debt, Wizz Air may not be the last foreign airline to seek a UK-funded bailout whilst Virgin Atlantic teeters on the brink.
 
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